It was 60 days ago that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
