Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
